Kentucky Derby Odds, Post Positions, Prop Bets
137th Kentucky Derby Post Positions and Odds
Saturday marks the 137th running of the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs in Louisville. The jewel of the Triple Crown races, this year’s ‘Run for the Roses’ features a field as wide open as any in recent years.
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Drawing for postpositions took place on Thursday. And while it’s important to understand the positions close to the rail, and what the odds on the horses are. There are other factors hat serious bettors may want to consider.
Since 1982, 14 winners have come from the 10th position or further out from the railing. Only one of the last five winners fit this criteria (Big Brown in 2008), and a victory this year from inside the first nine would mark the third straight year this has occurred. It would also mark the first time that has happened since 1986-88.
That same year was also the last time the horse that started the race on the railing won the Derby. Winning Colors turned the trick that year, just two years after Ferdinand went from worst to first with Willie Shoemaker in the stirrups. Before that, the last contender to win from the first postposition was Chateaugay in 1963. The horse in that spot this year is Archarcharch, who starts at 10-1 odds. The Arkansas Derby (G1) winner will surely have his work cut out for him
Looking at this year’s jockeys, Calvin Borel is looking to win his third straight Kentucky Derby, and fourth in the last five years. In the previous, four instances that one jockey has won consecutive years, they failed to ‘three-peat’ every time. Borel will be on Twice the Appeal out of the third position, at 20-1 odds. Sandwiched between Borel and the post position is Brilliant Speed at 30-1.
For period of eight years between 1995 and 2002, you had a solid chance of picking a winner by choosing a horse trained by either D. Wayne Lukas or Bob Baffert. During the stretch, the two men combined to win six of the eight races. Since Baffert’s War Emblem won in 2002, eight different trainers have all reached the winner’s circle. Archarcharch and Midnight Interlude, starting in the No. 15 spot and trained by Baffert, are two of the early morning line favorites at 10-1.
The lead favorite on the board is the Nick Zito trained Dialed In, who is listed at 4-1 from the eighth spot. Dialed In has prior experience at Churchill Downs, where he won his first career start by a half-length in November.
As for the rest of the field: Stay Thirsty is at No. 4 and is listed at 20-1; Decisive Moment is at No. 5 and is listed at 30-1; Comma to the Top is at No. 6 and is listed at 30-1; Pants on Fire, with Rosie Napravnik aboard, is at No. 7 and is listed at 20-1 (this is one to watch); Derby Kitten is at No. 9 and is listed at 30-1; Twin Spired is at No. 10 and is listed at 30-1; both Master of Hounds at No.11 and Santiva at No. 12 are both listed at 30-1; Mucho Macho Man at No. 13 and Shackleford at No. 14 are both at 12-1 odds; Animal Kingdom is at No. 16 and is listed at 30-1; and Soldat is at No. 17 and is listed at 12-1.
Uncle Mo, who figures to set the pace at No 18, is on the board at 9-2 odds. Rounding out the field are Nehro and Watch Me Go.
My trifecta for this weekend’s ”Run for the Roses” for the favorites: Dialed In, Archarcharch, and Nehro.