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When Favorites Show The Payout Is Low

When Favorites Show The Payout Is Low

Horse betting tends to be very complex and picking out the winning horses is quite a difficult task. There are several things you need to look into when analyzing each horse in a given race. One thing you need to bear in mind is that each horse has an equal chance of winning in a race especially in handicap races.

Therefore, how does one get to select the best horses for the race?

Horse betting can be very difficult only if you are a passive punter. Aggression is the key to success and you need not to be mislead by what others tell you. It’s a known fact that favorites have a 30% chance of winning in a race but when the favorites show, the payouts/dividend is usually very low. The dividend becomes meaningless especially when all favorites win the race.

The reverse is true, when the underdogs/outsiders show, the payouts/dividend is very high at which it can reach over $10k for exotic bets. From my personal point of view, I have observed that the underdogs usually win in most races and favorites tend to disappoint all the time. However, the favorites tend to show in a race rather than winning as top runner. Therefore, how do you place your bets?

The first thing you need to look at are the favorites. Yes, these horses are highly favored and their previous performance is satisfactory but you need to consider that they are competing with other horses of the same level for the first time. Since all horses are competing against each other, you need to out rule an important factor commonly known as ‘bias’. Hence, do not be too confident with the favorites but rather consider them equal to all other horses. Forget about trying to compare their previous performance with all other horses because their results are satisfactory.

Now, given that the favorites have been listed, you now need to pay more attention on selecting the underdogs. Even for the horse that is list favored, there is big value in it when it wins a race so you certainly need not to undermine it because anything can happen on the racetrack. There is always one blind side that changes everything in a race and this is the false starts that may cause a horse(s) to be scratched. All horses are subject to false starts and it happens often at which any one of your horse can be scratched and causes a change in everything.

Therefore, you need to spread your bets in a way that you minimize your risk loss to minimal. For instance, you can play two exotic bets as your major bets and other bets such as swingers, etc

1- All your selected horses boxed with the exclusion of favorites
2-All your selected horses boxed with the inclusion of all favorites
3- For swinger bets – you can select any 2 horses that you favor or alternatively you can make a combination of both the swinger and trifecta bet into one bet.
The exotic bets can be very expensive but if you do not have much of a huge bankroll, you can consider placing the exotic bets as fractional bets. 

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