Horse betting is the only sportsbetting activity were wagers cannot pre-calculate their dividend if their outcome is a success. Unlike other sports betting activities, a success in horse betting does not guarantee profits. You may find out that the money you wagered is more than the dividend being paid out at which this results to a loss. However, the gist is you are holding a winning ticket but is it worth a pay check?
Understanding the dividend
Before getting into detail, let me give you a short analysis of how the dividend is calculated. The dividend is given out after the race and it is derived according to the outcome of the horses. On a race form, each horse has odds at which the odds determine the dividend to be paid. Many people tend to think that the dividend is derived from the pool (according to the amount of money wagered on specific horses) at which this is not true. The following factors have influence on the dividend;
- Low Dividend = favorites show as Win, Place and Show
- High Dividend = favorites do not show
- High Dividend =any one of the favorites show and the rest are underdogs with high odds (the horses that were not expected to win at all)
How To Construct A Winning Paycheck
From understanding how the dividend is derived, you will notice that each time when favorites show the dividend is very low whereas if the favorites do not show the dividend is high. However, there is a 50% likelihood of any one of the favorites to show at which if you want a guaranteed paycheck you should always include the favorite but is it a high paycheck?
One thing you need to know is that there is a time you certainly need to include the favorites and a time when not to include or be misled by the favorites. If all favorites show, your dividend is very low because these horses were already picked as winning horses at which it is your head start.
From my own point of view as a long term punter, I have observed two things regarding the outcome of the favorites. During major main events, the first two favorites have a 50% chance of showing due to the fact that they are familiar with the race track and they have performed well in the past years running the same event as well as its recent performance in other events.
Now, when looking at favorites for regular events you will find out that the way they are handicapped makes it very difficult to judge their outcome. The favorites are mixed with horses that have not yet ran a track ‘ first run’ or horses that have never come first but have shown as place in other races. Hence, selecting/including such favorites can be very difficult. If you are a regular punter, I guess you have noticed that favorites do not frequently show during regular events. Hence, if you wager on all races of a particular race course during the day and you do not include the favorites, you can score big.
Implementing The Strategy
From the above, I hope you have understood that favorites have a major influence on the dividend and these results to a low dividend if all of them show. But if any one of the favorites show, the dividend is favorable. In addition, favorites frequently show during major events and seldom show during regular events.
Let’s start focusing on the regular horse racing events. Personally, I love wagering on the Singapore horse races mainly the Kranji (running every week Friday & Saturday). My theory and strategy has always been successful, not so quite sure when used on other regular racing events but for the Kranji, I have mastered it from the back and front of my palm.
The kranji, all its races have a maximum of 14 horses and they never go above. Some are 12 and you may find one or two races with horses less than 11.
Upon taking the race form, I start off with the first race. If it has 14 horses, I remove the favorites – these are the four horses that have been listed on the race form.The reason for removing the favorites is that they tend to mislead punters. (Some online sportbooks will only list the horses according to the odds at which the horses listed above are usually the favorites if you make use of the filter option to sort the horses. But to avoid confusion, simply contact the helpdesk of the sportbook to request for the horse form download pdf version; this is a must for all punters because it shows detailed information of each particular horse). After removing the favorites, if you look and analyze the odds of each horse you will find out that there are two horses that have the worst odds and their odds are similar or slightly similar. I also remove these two because they are very unlikely to win or show during the race. (The removal of the last two horses with bad odds tends to be debated but the following example will show how the last two horses are removed)
This example will show how to remove the last two horses according to its odds. Since we have removed the first 4 horses (the 4 listed favorites) we will concentrate on the remaining 10 horses at which we are now searching for the last two to be removed.
Suppose the odds show as
Analyzing the odds, you can observe that the last two horses have got odds that are way above the rest at which they have been given high odds to make them attractive to punters. However, horses with such odds seldom show in a race and given that anyone shows, the odds are way extremely high. But if you are to analyses all races per day, you will find out that the last two horses do not show often at which this strategy tends to remove these. Somehow, the handicappers tend to place one or two horses that will be place holders although they are at par with all other horses.
Now looking at the chart, after removing the favorites (4 horses) and the last two horses with bad odds, you will remain with 8 horses and these are the winning horses. After having your 8 horses, if you take a closer look at the odds, the horses that seem to have similar odds i.e. 25/1 can have the ability to win or at least show in a race.
With these 8 horses, you will now have to include the top favorite making it a total of 9 horses. Adding the top favorite gives the benefit of a doubt given that if a favorite is to show it is highly likely to be a top favorite.
According to your budget, the best betting options to include is the swinger bets, trifecta and quartet. These bets should be played with the 8 horses with the exclusion of the top favorite. The swinger bets and the trifecta bets can be a combination of the two as follows,
Example 1: Combination of the trifecta and swinger bets
5, 6, 7|8, 9, 10
5, 6, 7|10, 11, 12
5, 8, 12|7, 10, 9
One thing you need to know is that these bets should be played as multiples of 5 or more. If you have a tight budget the best betting option is the quartet.
With the quartet bet, the top favorite is included and made the banker. This bet can be played as fractional bets if you have a tight budget.
Example 2: Quartet Bet
Banker (Top Favorite)| Field
1|5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12
This technique of including a top favorite is applicable for regular events whereas in major events the technique is similar but this time favorites tend to frequently show at which the technique includes two top favorites.
The trifecta and swinger bets adopt a similar concept since you will be just searching for any combination that will grab two horses and trigger the swinger bet making use of the trifecta and swinger combination.
The quartet bet should be played twice for major events will be as follows
- Banker (Top Favorite)| Field 9 horses including Second Top Favorite
- Banker (Second Top Favorite)| Field 9 horses including Top Favorite
In order to maximize or realize profits using this strategy, you should make sure that all races are played using the same strategy and it should be consistent.
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